Who's good at statistics?

[firetender]

Okay, so I'm now working as chase car (van) driver for groups of bicyclists cruising down the face of a volcano (See previous post .)

Maybe someone can help me with statistics.

A conservative estimate of the # of people that ride bicycles down the volcano per day is about 300.

This includes those who leave the summit on guided tours (the National Park forbids anyone BUT guided tours -- spelled p-r-o-t-e-c-t-e-d -- to ride in the park), AND unguided bikers who either get vanned up just below the park entrance (after they BUY the bicycle from the company -- and then sell it back at the end of the tour; how's THAT for a way to dodge liability!), or get transported up some way and then ride down.

In the last year, 3 people died in bike wrecks on the mountain. That's 3 out of a little less than 110,000 rides. How might that compare with, say, car fatalities?

 

[Ridryder911]

Check with your friendly NHTSA web site and they will tell you the percentage of injuries/deaths per rides or autos, passengers, etc..

Then do a comparison on number of population ( p) drivers versus riders. Be sure that it is only drivers, since that is what you are truly measuring in both, not any additional variables.

R/r 911

 

[VinBin]

Do you mean in terms of car fatalities over the general population?

Althought it isn't entirely a fair comparison. We can compare just in terms of chances of having a fatal accident per year.
Its around .003% in chances of dying while riding bikes at the volcano based on 3 deaths out of 110000. The chances of dying in a car accident in a year is ~1 in 6500, or about .015%.

Anyway, you are just about 5x more likely to die from a car accident in a year than you are to die biking at the mountains in a year.

 

[firetender]

Many thanks!

...of course, were you to break that down by miles travelled, then that would be a significantly different story.

Stand by, though...there's more questions coming!